Don't worry, Apple Vision Pro is not in trouble
The headlines are full of stories about reduced production figures and cancelled Vision Pro models. Much ado about nothing.
Reports have been circulating for days that Apple's Vision Pro could be a failure and that production plans are being cut and new models cancelled. At the center of the reports are two statements by Apple expert Mark Gurman and Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Both are perfect for headlines and have caused a lot of confusion.
Gurman: Demand for demonstrations declining
Earlier this week, Apple expert Mark Gurman published his weekly "Power On" newsletter via Bloomberg, in which he speculated about declining sales of the Vision Pro.
His wording:
"Here’s what I’m hearing from Apple retail stores: Demand for demos is way down. People who do book appointments often don’t show up, and sales — at least at some locations — have gone from a couple of units a day to just a handful in a whole week."
Apple also "had to" increase marketing efforts on its own website and place the Vision Pro prominently on the home page.
Not a measure of success
Gurman is describing nothing more than the usual process in the product lifecycle of high-tech devices. Initial hype leads to great interest and — ideally — high sales figures at market launch. Over time, interest wanes, sales drop, and the manufacturers start banging the drum again.
Since the Apple Vision Pro is a very high-priced niche product in its first generation, it was to be expected that sales and general interest would decline much sooner than with established product categories. Anyone who expected the VR/AR headset to go through the roof in just two months and make XR mainstream is — with all due respect — a dreamer or doesn't know the industry and its problems.
It also goes too far to conclude that a possible decline in interest in Apple Stores is a failure. The Vision Pro is not just a consumer product. As a "spatial computing platform" it is intended to be used for both personal and professional purposes, just like smartphones, laptops, and PCs. As with many of its products, Apple is also targeting the B2B market with the Vision Pro.
Apple recently unveiled a number of use cases for Vision Pro beyond home entertainment. The company has partnered with well-known companies such as Microsoft, SAP and Nvidia. Anyone who has been involved in establishing new technology in a company knows that this can be a long process. In the long run, however, the Vision Pro could well establish itself as a B2B headset. However, the number of demonstrations in Apple stores will not indicate this.
Kuo: Production will be scaled back
However, Ming-Chi Kuo's speculations have caused much more of a stir. The Apple analyst has been right several times in the past. Kuo is known for being well connected in Apple's supply chains.
In his latest blog entry, Kuo claims that Apple has lowered its sales forecast for the Vision Pro from 700,000 to 800,000 units to 400,000 to 450,000 units.
Apple has reduced orders ahead of the launch in other countries, as sales in the US market have fallen far short of expectations. As a result, the company has also adjusted its product roadmap, and no new model is expected to be launched in 2025.
Contradictory statements
The fact is that there are no official statements from Apple regarding production volumes, sales figures, or sales targets. So Kuo's statements are pure speculation. He also contradicts himself at times.
In January, Kuo estimated initial sales of Apple's Vision Pro at 180,000 units and predicted sales of 500,000 units in 2024. Now he is talking about more than 700,000 units.
According to Kuo, the 700,000-plus forecast is the "market consensus". However, there is no concrete evidence to support this. Based on media reports and Kuo's own statements, the market consensus is more likely to be around 500,000 units. Mark Gurman also reported a sales target of between 400,000 and 500,000 units as early as 2023.
As compiled by UploadVR, The Financial Times, The Information, and The Elec also reported on limited production options for the Vision Pro due to the limited supply of micro-OLED displays. According to these reports, Sony will only be able to supply up to 500,000 displays in 2024.
Much ado about nothing
Even if the speculation about production numbers is true, Apple will not abandon the Vision Pro after two months or cancel all plans for future models in the short term. The VR/AR headset is likely to have cost billions to develop and is clearly an investment in the future.
Of course, with a price tag of at least $3,500, the Vision Pro is still a niche product, nothing more than an expensive dev kit for developers and tech enthusiasts. Apple knows this and has no illusions about sales.
The Vision Pro in its current version provides Apple with information about user behavior, possible use cases and optimizations for future models. The true value of Vision Pro will only become apparent over the next three to four generations of devices as the technology behind it matures.
So don't worry, Apple Vision Pro won't be another Playstation VR 2.
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